Another day. Another test of my intelligence.

1. Returning to the CapCo Investments problem in Assignment 3, notice that the financial models for each project have some probabilistic assumptions built into them about the sales in year 1 and the sales growth rates. These are reflected in the green Crystal Ball assumption cells.

a. Using the optimal solution to the original model from Assignment 3 (the correct answer is to select projects 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, and 11), run Crystal Ball to examine the risks associated with implementing this solution given the uncertainties of year 1 sales and sales growth rates. What is the certainty that you will at least break even on total project NPV? Discuss your findings.
b. Use OptQuest to find the best solution that maximizes the expected net present value while meeting the budget restriction. What is the certainty that you will at least break even on total project NPV?

Please meet my statistics teacher, Jim Evans. We are no longer seeing each other. It was mutual.

These are the questions that I answer in my statistics class (I just finished the final a couple hours ago). Although I spent the majority of my teenage years promising to never use algebra in real life, I am now faced with the opportunity of getting an MBA at a mediocre business college in the midwest (longest sentence over). But who's the most surprised about this? Not my mom. Me. Don't worry! I still have two other finals, including micro economics and production schmanagement. nah, I spelled that right. the class is a bit of a joke.

I just realized that I am turning this blog into my real thoughts, instead of something more eloquent and classic. I tried doing the same thing with my journal in sixth grade after I read the Diary of Anne Frank. I failed that time also. I am just a ranter and not a writer. However, I am a giver. Someday I hope there is a plaque that is as simple and beautiful as the following.